By: Scott Davis
The punchline of this piece is that the current trade war risk will heavily weigh on supply chain decisions for the next 10 years or so. Anyone who relies heavily for product imported from China (e.g. Apple) will be highly incentivized to build local capacity and diversify supply chain partners away from the region. This will reverse a 20-year trend and be a boom for automation/robotics and general factory capex in the U.S. This note walks through some history to the first time the Chinese and Americans engaged in combat. And…we offer up stock ideas to play our themes.