Research Report
April 18, 2018

From Tractors to Tech

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By: Rob Wertheimer  Deere’s move from being an implement maker to a tractor maker with its acquisition of Waterloo Gasoline Engine Company in 1918 was a transformational strategic move, that…

Research Report
April 18, 2018

Industrial Tech: Additive Manufacturing

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By: Carter Copeland  In our fourth report focused on industrial tech, we take a closer look at additive manufacturing or 3D printing, a set of technologies with the potential to…

Research Report
April 18, 2018

China Excavator Sales, March

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By: Rob Wertheimer  China excavator sales are surging, up 79% in March, a positive for CAT’s 1Q momentum, and with the underlying details showing a sustained successful strategy in the…

Research Report
April 18, 2018

Estimate + Ratings Changes Spurred by Melius Real PMI

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By: Rob Wertheimer  We are raising our 1Q Cummins revenue estimates to above the current consensus high end, raising our full year as well, and are upgrading Manitowoc (MTW) shares…

Research Report
April 18, 2018

Cranes at Trough

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By: Rob Wertheimer  We have had the same cranes thesis since 2011, that the product is longer lived, with cranes operating for 15-30 years versus 7-15 for other machinery. We…

Research Report
April 18, 2018

Navistar Upgrade

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By: Rob Wertheimer  We are upgrading Navistar shares to Neutral from Underweight, as the investment debate has shifted more strongly to one of industry consolidation, and we do not have a differentiated…

Research Report
April 18, 2018

GE Restatement: The Good, The Bad and The Annoying

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By: Scott Davis GE’s much anticipated 8-K came out after the close Friday. That alone is a statement…Not many great companies put out releases on Friday nights. Restatements are common…

Research Report
April 11, 2018

Rental and Retail and Valuation Gaps

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By: Rob Wertheimer  Over the past 10 years, URI has an EPS CAGR of 17%, while Ashtead/Sunbelt posted 25%. Except for valuation, the model is somewhat similar to a rising…

Research Report
April 10, 2018

U.S. Industrials: China vs. USA – 1950 vs. 2018

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By: Scott Davis The punchline of this piece is that the current trade war risk will heavily weigh on supply chain decisions for the next 10 years or so.  Anyone…

Research Report
April 9, 2018

Melius Industrials Macro Strategy: Tariffs Impacting Confidence

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By: Scott Davis Folks, in the link below please find our monthly Melius Industrials Macro Strategy deck. Key takeaways below: Rising trade risks appear to be impacting investment spend…  …

Research Report
April 9, 2018

Four Idiosyncratic Ideas for a Volatile Macro Setup

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By: Carter Copeland  The current macro environment, driven by the tariff debate, is creating two distinct setups in the broader A&D space: (1) own Defense for safety and certain growth…

Research Report
April 9, 2018

Declining Horsepower Needs and Tillage

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By: Rob Wertheimer  We’ve been writing for five years or so that US and Canada farms have sharply elevated levels of tractor horsepower, relative to history, to recommendations from ag…

Research Report
April 6, 2018

Baseball and Portfolio Management: Radical Breakthroughs and Learnings

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By: Scott Davis The 2003 book Moneyball by Michael Lewis was a true story about “radical” baseball general manager Billy Beane and his use of analytics and technology to drive…

Research Report
April 4, 2018

BA: Initial Take on Proposed Chinese Tariffs

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By: Carter Copeland  The proposed weight limits on commercial aircraft look to purposely single out the 737NG. The NG is Boeing’s current narrowbody offering that is transitioning to the new…

Research Report
April 4, 2018

No Magic Beans: Soybeans and Tariffs

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By: Rob Wertheimer  With the news that China plans to impose soybean tariffs we are adding to our tariff work with a little background on land and production Report Here…

Research Report
April 2, 2018

BAH: Premium Growth for Hire

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By: Carter Copeland  Recently we introduced a new data series that tracks current and historical job postings on the Booz Allen Hamilton website going back 6+ years, in an effort…

Research Report
March 29, 2018

Breadth of Moat in Rental Equipment

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By: Rob Wertheimer  We strongly disagree with the prevailing investor perception on rental company quality, and think that these misperceptions create the largest alpha in our coverage. That’s even given…

Research Report
March 28, 2018

GE: The Next 3 Months of Catalysts

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By: Scott Davis We don’t usually write short-term pieces, but given GE stock volatility we thought we’d provide a few items of interest for investors.  Here are some events that…

Research Report
March 26, 2018

The Earnings Setup – Q1 2018

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By: Carter Copeland  As we do each quarter, we look to month’s end with an attempt to capture and compare where sentiment in our space is most bullish/bearish ahead of…

Research Report
March 26, 2018

Trade Wars and Machinery Opportunities

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By: Rob Wertheimer  As tariff issues grow and shift machinery has continued to trade down, with stock movement lately more in line with beta than with actual fundamental exposure. Since…

Research Report
March 26, 2018

U.S. Industrials: Tariffs & Opportunities

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By: Scott Davis No one seems to want to risk free trade, but behind the scenes many of our CEOs are supportive of some action to level the playing field….

Research Report
March 22, 2018

U.S. Industrials: Spin-offs Return 2x the S&P – We Expect to See Many More in 2018

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By: Scott Davis De-conglomeration continues to be a dominant theme in industrials, with companies across the sector under shareholder/activist pressure to simplify their portfolios.  Investors are increasingly looking to isolate…

Research Report
March 21, 2018

CNHI CEO Rich Tobin to Dover

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By: Rob Wertheimer  A few thoughts on compensation, board engagement, and management retention. CNH Report Here  

Research Report
March 19, 2018

UTX: Heads I Win, Tails You Lose

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By: Carter Copeland  UTX increasingly a consensus long. After our time spent at the UTX Investor Day last week, it’s clear to us that consensus has firmly shifted to the…

Research Report
March 19, 2018

Industrial Tech: Silicon Valley Presence and Board Leadership

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By: Rob Wertheimer  Industrials are naturally disadvantaged when it comes to competing on tech. Our report highlights who is ahead/behind by looking at BoD composition and Silicon Valley presence. Report…

Research Report
March 19, 2018

TEL: Initiating OW – Our Best Electrification Story

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By: Scott Davis TE Connectivity, originally Tyco Electronics pre-2007, should benefit from multiple years of both cyclical (industrial capex) and secular (electrification) tailwinds. And we have a more positive view on…

Research Report
March 16, 2018

Consumer Weakness and Stanley Black and Decker Strength

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By: Rob Wertheimer  One pushback to our bullish upgrade of Stanley Black and Decker (SBD) has been that with industrials seeing record strength in indicators around core growth, and consumers…

Research Report
March 14, 2018

GTES: Good Start Post IPO

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By: Scott Davis Out of the 20+ industrial IPOs we’ve launched coverage on, a shockingly high number of them have missed numbers out of the gate. Gates, fortunately, does not…

Research Report
March 14, 2018

What’s Missing in Boeing’s Factories?

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By: Carter Copeland  Once in 50-year margin expansion (to levels ~50% above prior peaks) remains a central pillar of our bullish stance on BA. Smart product decisions (re-engined airplane offerings…

Research Report
March 14, 2018

SWK: Underpriced Outgrowth, Upgrading to Buy

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By: Rob Wertheimer  This thesis has three legs, all pointing to market underestimation of long term prospects and value SWK Report Here  

Research Report
March 12, 2018

What’s Wrong With LLL?

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By: Carter Copeland  The short answer is nothing…but investors are asking: While still ahead of the S&P, LLL shares have lagged defense peers by ~500bps on a YTD basis, and…

Research Report
March 12, 2018

Melius Industrials Macro Strategy: Capex is King

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By: Scott Davis Folks, in the link below please find our monthly Melius Industrials Macro Strategy deck. Report Here  

Research Report
March 9, 2018

Oil & Gas Efficiency vs Structural Demand

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By: Rob Wertheimer  The most startling idea we have uncovered in more than a decade of thinking about machinery is the engine power used in fracking. A fracked well with…

Research Report
March 7, 2018

FTV: Making Moves with Automation Sale

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By: Scott Davis More often than not the winners in industrials are the companies that make bold portfolio moves. We call it “activity = achievement”; companies in “motion” capture investor…

Research Report
March 7, 2018

GE: What the Healthineers IPO Implies for GE Healthcare

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By: Scott Davis Siemens announced over the weekend that it’s readying its Healthineers biz for IPO in a few weeks that could value the asset at €26-31B ($32-38B USD). The…

Research Report
March 6, 2018

The Troubles with High Growth

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By: Rob Wertheimer  Ashtead stock is down 5.5% on a quarter that shows strong revenue growth and margins that underwhelmed on cost pressures. Worth noting for broader investors is that…

Research Report
March 6, 2018

Amazon’s Venture Into Home Automation

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By: Rob Wertheimer  We’ve written about tech disrupting industrial businesses and skimming off profit streams. And the pace of tech disruption can be startling to slower-moving industrial assets. With that…

Research Report
March 5, 2018

Opportunities and Risks from Recent Correction: Buy CAT

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By: Rob Wertheimer  Machinery stocks are down an average of 8% since news of possible steel tariffs broke. We see CAT as the largest opportunity in this move. Stocks that…

Research Report
February 28, 2018

HON: Dave Cote – The Best Late Round Draft Pick Since Tom Brady

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By: Scott Davis Dave Cote retired rich and made HON shareholders even richer – poster child of capitalism win/win.  In comparison, most of our companies’ CEOs retire rich with shareholders…

Research Report
February 27, 2018

Analysis of “Normal” In Ag Series: North American Combines Edition

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By: Rob Wertheimer  We’ve been working on analyzing normal volumes in Deere, CNHI and AGCO businesses. We addressed Brazilian tractors previously, and touched on North American tractors, with more to…

Research Report
February 26, 2018

Defense Momentum Intact, But Don’t Forget There’s No Such Thing as Pension Income

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By: Carter Copeland We see the defense group as ownable based on a positive cyclical growth dynamic fueled by political/public appetite for increased defense spending and an increasingly complex global…

Research Report
February 26, 2018

U.S. Multi-Industry: Why Culture Matters – “Tough & Competent”

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By: Scott Davis It’s taken me the better part of my career to understand the importance of culture, how hard it is to build, how easy it is to lose. …

Research Report
February 26, 2018

Machinery Steel Exposure

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By: Rob Wertheimer  We don’t see the proposed US steel tariffs as dramatic for machinery earnings, with most companies likely to see minimal earnings risk even without offsetting pricing. Steel…

Research Report
February 20, 2018

BA: Dream Big… Why Not Go After GE Aviation?

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By: Carter Copeland & Scott Davis Is M&A the next leg of BA’s transformation? We think BA is still in the early stages of a once-in-50-year transformation focused on becoming a higher…

Research Report
February 20, 2018

Better Truck History Shows Cycle Duration and Efficiency Risk to Growth in Machinery

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By: Rob Wertheimer  Truck cycle analysis suffers from a short history of available data, with the widely used ACT series going back only to 1996. We dug up a longer history for…

Research Report
February 15, 2018

EMR: Still a Top Pick

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By: Scott Davis Analyst day was well attended, mostly long only community vs. HF’s, mostly NYC and Boston folks.  General mood among attendees was bullish – most people like this…

Research Report
February 15, 2018

Airbus: Back on Track? Feels Like It

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By: Carter Copeland We’ve been bullish on the multi-year outlook for Airbus for the last several years, but admittedly our optimism has been modestly tempered over the last ~6 months…

Research Report
February 14, 2018

Cycles and Unexpected Outcomes on Fleet Dynamics

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By: Rob Wertheimer  A theme in our fleet and cycle work is that when normal sales on aging and shrinking fleets run into a surge in demand, results can be…

Research Report
February 14, 2018

Defense: Lots of Catalysts Now in the Price

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By: Carter Copeland This note concludes the sixth year in our effort to aggregate quarterly defense company results into “scorecards” to more clearly compare various operational and stock-performance metrics across…

Research Report
February 14, 2018

Melius Industrials Strategy

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By: Scott Davis Industrial Strategy Folks, in the link below please find our monthly Melius Industrials Macro Strategy deck. Key takeaways below… Report Here  

Research Report
February 13, 2018

GE: Baker Hughes a Win/Win…Buy It All

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By: Scott Davis GE is expected to liquidate its 62.5% stake in the Baker Hughes/GE Oil & Gas business and we propose that GE consider the exact opposite… With BHGE…

Research Report
February 13, 2018

Ag Dashboard

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By: Rob Wertheimer  Our ag thesis: ag machinery markets are probably much closer to normal than to trough, and equities risk mis-pricing as a result. We’ve worked on individual build…

Research Report
February 13, 2018

Thesis Creep on the Cheap

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By: Carter Copeland GD’s proposed acquisition of Fed IT provider CSRA came as a bit of a shock this morning. Few seem enamored by the deal and we attribute the…

Research Report
February 12, 2018

The GTF – Here We Go Again

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By: Carter Copeland News on Friday afternoon that the Pratt GTF engine had encountered a new problem (and a follow up on Saturday from Airbus confirming that GTFpowered aircraft deliveries would be…

Research Report
February 12, 2018

The Smartest Man in Industrials is Back (and Supporting Melius)

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By: Scott Davis In starting Melius, the biggest to-do on my list was to lever the benefit of independence to reconnect with the best of the best, and not just in the…

Research Report
February 12, 2018

Industrial Technology: Shape of the Market

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By: Rob Wertheimer  We are launching a new avenue of research aimed at disruptive technology. Alongside this note we are publishing a separate chartbook, a new and unique overview of funding…

Research Report
February 9, 2018

FTV: Proving That Spins Do Work

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By: Scott Davis We were initially skeptical that the FTV spin-off from Danaher would create outsized value – after all DHR had already traded at a pretty healthy multiple.  Key…

Research Report
February 9, 2018

Mining Cycle: Status, Thesis, & Outlook

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By: Rob Wertheimer  We use some highly detailed mining equipment data in support of our work, and present a year-end wrap up and quarterly trend data here. Our thesis in…

Research Report
February 8, 2018

What’s Going on With All This Boeing M&A Talk?

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By: Carter Copeland With the WSJ reporting on BA’s potential interest in WWD, a couple of things are on our mind: 1) The pace and scale of BA’s M&A effort…

Research Report
February 8, 2018

GE Should Move Faster: 5 Ideas

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By: Scott Davis The best pushback we get on buying GE here is a lack of tangible catalysts, lack of visibility, and the reality that other industrial peers are riding…

Research Report
February 7, 2018

U.S. Industrials: Upcycle Intact – Shopping List on the “Pullback”

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By: Scott Davis, Carter Copeland & Rob Wertheimer On our Melius launch in Oct 2017 we stated that we are only in inning 3 of the upcycle, however the market…

Research Report
February 6, 2018

EMR: Still a Top Pick

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By: Scott Davis EMR is one the key stocks that we target to buy on the market’s correction.  EMR Report Here  

Research Report
February 6, 2018

CFX: Not Ready For Prime Time

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By: Scott Davis Colfax is an intriguing story, solely because of its common ancestry with Danaher and Fortive. Otherwise it’s a pretty uninteresting story with middle-of-the-pack assets and a culture…

Research Report
February 6, 2018

BAH: Growth vs. Margin Saga Continues, Upside Intact

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By: Carter Copeland There was enough evidence in BAH’s FYQ3 results to support our bullish top-line acceleration thesis despite disappointing margins again stealing the show. We’re staying Buy-Accumulate and think…

Research Report
February 5, 2018

Money-Making Themes Post Q4 Earnings

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By: Carter Copeland With earnings season now close to done, we highlight a handful of themes that we see as significant marginal drivers of group performance as we exit Q4…

Research Report
February 5, 2018

What We Learned in 4Q17

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By: Scott Davis We are officially in quarter 3 of the industrial upcycle and all signs continue to point up and to the right.  As we said most of 4Q17,…

Research Report
February 5, 2018

US Ag/Construction Market Share & Leasing Dashboard

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By: Rob Wertheimer  CNHI continues to lose share in high horsepower North American ag equipment, which may be a 10% headwind to 2018 large ag sales in NA for CNH….

Research Report
February 1, 2018

RXN: This is the Quarter We’ve Been Looking For

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By: Scott Davis Since our Oct launch, RXN has stood out to us as one of the few deep value cyclicals left in an otherwise pricey space, and as such…

Research Report
February 1, 2018

ETN: It’s Their Turn…

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By: Scott Davis In October, on our launch of Melius, we upgraded ETN to Overweight vs. our prior view and leaned in more heavily on cyclicals.  And the ETN recommendation…

Research Report
February 1, 2018

IR: Time to Buy It Again…Upgrade to OW from EW

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By: Scott Davis We love the theme of industrial laggards and IR has trailed the group by 700 bps LTM.  What has kept us on the sidelines have been three…

Research Report
January 31, 2018

BA: $500 or Bust…Still a Must Own in Industrials

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By: Carter Copeland We harbored some modest concerns that BA expectations were growing a bit lofty into earnings; however, the company once again delivered, laying to rest any short-term fears…

Research Report
January 31, 2018

PACCAR Thesis Post 4Q17

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By: Rob Wertheimer  Paccar finished another positive year from a strategic standpoint. Share up in North America, parts revenue up 11% on continuation of a longstanding strategy, and increased integration,…

Research Report
January 30, 2018

DHR: These Guys Are Good

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By: Scott Davis We’ve had a Buy rating of some sorts on DHR for a dozen years or so and obviously no regrets there.   But each of those years there…

Research Report
January 26, 2018

HON: What Matters for the Stock

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By: Scott Davis The minutia around quarterly earnings is maddening.  So here’s a quick summary of what matters: The 2018 guide went up with the new tax tailwind but not…

Research Report
January 26, 2018

CAT With More Room: What We Think and What We Learned After 4Q17 Results

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By: Rob Wertheimer  Still at deep trough: CAT revenues peaked at almost $66 billion in 2012. In 2017, CAT earned $6.88 (adjusted) on $45 billion in revenues, down more than…

Research Report
January 25, 2018

URI 2018 and Beyond

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By: Rob Wertheimer  URI’s 2017 full year report and outlook showed improved scale, industry pricing, and operations. Its adjusted EBITDA guide is up ~16% year over year, with incremental margin…

Research Report
January 25, 2018

UTX: How Much More Could be Left in This Move?

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By: Carter Copeland We missed it: Some trades can seem obvious after the fact and frankly that’s how we feel about UTX here. The stock felt like a great upgrade…

Research Report
January 24, 2018

CAT Retail Sales: Machines up 34%, Managing the Growth is Key Issue

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By: Rob Wertheimer  CAT dealer/retail sales in the three months ended December rose a remarkable 34%, up from the three month up 26% in November and 19% in October. Engines…

Research Report
January 24, 2018

GE: Still Messy, But De-Risking Quickly

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By: Scott Davis The stock seems to have found a bottom and the narrative seems to be finding balance.  For those waiting for the falling knife to land, you can…

Research Report
January 23, 2018

GE: Getting Out of the Abyss (In Pictures)

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By: Scott Davis Following up on our piece yesterday, we have provided a PPT presentation with some more granular data/info on GE and our positive view.  We include a new…

Research Report
January 23, 2018

Why This Earnings Season Should be More Volatile, and Provide Buying Opportunities

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By: Carter Copeland For several reasons, we expect Q4 earnings season to be more volatile than any we can recall in recent years. However, we expect short-term volatility to fade…

Research Report
January 22, 2018

Compounding Value: Tax Benefits and Asset Returns at URI/AHT

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By: Rob Wertheimer  Our view of rental equipment companies like URI, Sunbelt/Ashtead, and eventually maybe HRI is that they are akin to low risk compounders, trading at a steep discount…

Research Report
January 22, 2018

GE: Getting Out of the Abyss

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By: Scott Davis It’s been since April 2008 that we’ve seen GE in a negative vortex like this.  Banks had their “fun” in 2008-2009 and no price was too low. …

Research Report
January 22, 2018

SPR: I Got 99 Problems, But The Brits Ain’t One

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By: Carter Copeland With GKN now actively in play, SPR shareholders and management should be thinking creatively about what a potential tie-up might mean for the company’s long-term future. Since…

Research Report
January 18, 2018

Where Are China Excavators in the Cycle?

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By: Rob Wertheimer  CAT some weeks ago made cautionary comments on China construction equipment; we’ve argued that CAT construction is at low cycle levels or deep troughs in North America,…

Research Report
January 16, 2018

Post Tax Revisions, BAH Looks Like Most Dislocated Name in A&D

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  By: Carter Copeland With initial 2018 outlooks set to include the benefits of tax reform, like others we’re updating our models with new effective rates: For our commercial aerospace…

Research Report
January 16, 2018

Volvo, Paccar and Rising Power of Scale

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By: Rob Wertheimer  We are occasionally asked why recommend Volvo shares given our more negative North American Truck cycle view, and given that Europe trucks are also at high cycle?…

Research Report
January 16, 2018

Melius Industrials Strategy

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By: Scott Davis Industrial Strategy Folks, today we are rolling out the latest iteration of our Melius Industrials Macro Strategy Databook, with a focus on the capex cycle.  Our view…

Research Report
January 12, 2018

DE: Ag Thoughts Post CEO Breakfast

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By: Rob Wertheimer  We are adding our analysis and opinion to the well reported and very positive dynamic at the Deere analyst breakfast. First the report: Deere is bullish, encapsulated…

Research Report
January 11, 2018

US Ag/Construction Share & Leasing Dashboard

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By: Rob Wertheimer  We are updating our data on financed equipment market share and leasing activity in US construction and ag machinery markets. Generally speaking, share data in ag is…

Research Report
January 9, 2018

U.S. Industrials: The Capex Upcycle in Pictures

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By: Scott Davis Folks, we’ve put together a slide deck outlining our view that capital spending will be the next industrial cycle driver. Key takeaways … Report Here  

Research Report
January 8, 2018

Rolling Forward the Machinery Cycle

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By: Rob Wertheimer  When should machinery investors start to look across the peak to the downside of cycles? Despite the obvious and varied melt-ups in our space, it is generally…

Research Report
January 8, 2018

U.S. Multi-Industry: Updating Numbers for Tax Bill

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By: Scott Davis With tax reform impacts becoming clearer, we’re updating our models with new (mostly lower) rates. Our average tax rate decreases 425 bps to ~23% from ~27%, translating…

Research Report
January 8, 2018

A Case for $500 As Operational Improvements Accelerate – The Boeing Company

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By: Carter Copeland After a detailed scrubbing of our multi-year bottom-up free cash flow and earnings forecasts in light of recent performance revelations and tax benefits, we still see significant…

Research Report
January 4, 2018

Brazil Ag Tractors: Analysis of “Normal”

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By: Rob Wertheimer  Surprising result: 2017 is more likely normal than trough For the first time we have an analytical framework to estimate normal sales volume for Brazil’s tractor market—a…

Research Report
January 4, 2018

EMR: 5 Ways to Win – High Conviction Buy

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By: Scott Davis EMR remains one of our 4 high-conviction Buy-Accumulate rated names. With cyclical upside from a recovering industrial macro, it’s surprising to us that the stock continues to…

Research Report
January 2, 2018

The Earnings Setup – Q4 2017

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By: Carter Copeland Back by popular demand: Following several requests, we’re bringing back our quarterly earnings setup analysis, in which we use various quantitative and qualitative measures to rank levels…

Research Report
December 22, 2017

Forget Accretion – What Does a Potential ERJ Deal Tell Us About BA’s Strategy?

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By: Carter Copeland Boeing continues to move aggressively to maximize their market position: Over the last several years, there has been a notable acceleration in BA’s forward-leaning posture when dealing…

Research Report
December 20, 2017

Melius Industrials Strategy

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By: Scott Davis Multi-Industry & Electrical Equipment, Aerospace & Defense, Machinery Folks, today we are rolling out the 2nd iteration of our Melius Industrials Macro Strategy Databook, representing the next…

Research Report
December 20, 2017

Does Tax Reform Break TDG’s Business Model?

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By: Carter Copeland We’ve fielded several questions about the secondary and tertiary impacts of tax reform following our note last week. One line of questioning that has come up in…