By: Rob Wertheimer
Let’s look at consensus forecasts for trucks, following ACT as a guide. Consensus expects an upcycle, a rise in long haul truck sales in 2018, 2019, and 2020. We expect flat sales, at midcycle. Consensus total trucks forecasted rise from ~250k trucks in 2017 to 285k trucks in 2018, 290k in 2020. We are more bearish only on the long haul side. By numbers, the average long haul/sleeper cab production has been 100 to 105k units over the past 15-20 years.