By: Carter Copeland

The specific characteristics of this downcycle point to uneven impacts across the aerospace ecosystem. The two unique elements that will define the COVID-19 commercial aerospace downturn are:

  • The magnitude of demand destruction (10-12 standard deviations down – measured in RPKs).
  • The out-sized level of aircraft retirements (6-10 standard deviations above normal).

These two factors will have significant influences on the shape of the recovery and the relative financial fortunes of industry players and make comparisons vs. prior down cycles and recoveries increasingly difficult.

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