Research Report
February 26, 2020

3M: Upgrade to Buy

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By: Scott Davis 3M is arguably the most out of favor of the multi-industry names (just 10% of analysts with a buy rating vs. 44% for our average name), yet...
Research Report
February 14, 2020

Melius Macro Views: Capex Spend is Accelerating

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By: Scott Davis  Folks, in the link below please find our latest Melius Macro Views slide deck. Key takeaways below: 4Q19 marked the 4th consecutive quarter of a short cycle…

Research Report
February 7, 2020

A Look Back at SARS’ Impact on Industrials

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By: Scott Davis With coronavirus a new global challenge, we can look back to SARS in mid-2003 for some context, though it’s an imperfect comparison. We were then just coming…

Research Report
January 27, 2020

CAT: Conservative Guide Likely… But Which Direction are Actual 2020 Earnings Risks?

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By: Rob Wertheimer  Pretty much everyone we’ve spoken with expects Cat to issue a conservative guide along with its 4Q earnings report; consensus has revenue down 3%, op profit down…

Research Report
January 23, 2020

Deere’s Technology Stack

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By: Rob Wertheimer  Seeing Deere at the CES show again this year was extremely stimulating to the thought process. We spent a bit of time listening to Blue River try…

Research Report
January 22, 2020

BA: Normalization Slipping Rightward

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By: Carter Copeland  Slower for longer…BA’s mid-2020 return-to-service estimate issued yesterday provides a rough confirmation of the slower production ramp being considered by suppliers in recent weeks (21/month post-production restart…

Research Report
January 21, 2020

2020-2021 Industrial End-Market Forecasts

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By: Scott Davis In this note we update our forecasts for our 20 most important end-markets. We are now deep into a global short-cycle industrial recession, consensus is catching up…

Research Report
January 16, 2020

Melius Macro Views: Numbers Coming Down Again

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By: Scott Davis  Folks, in the link below please find our latest Melius Macro Views slide deck. Key takeaways below: 4Q19 will mark the 4th consecutive quarter of a short…

Research Report
January 16, 2020

How Will the MAX Stoppage Impact Supplier Financials?

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By: Carter Copeland  The 737MAX production stoppage and subsequent ramp up will have major implications for the entire aerospace supply chain. The impacts of the stoppage haven’t been fully incorporated into…

Research Report
January 14, 2020

Looking at Drivers of Deere’s Margin Improvement Plan: Margin from Technology

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By: Rob Wertheimer At its recent webcast from CES, Deere gave some clarity on the drivers of its aspirations to take margin up several hundred basis points to around 15%….

Research Report
January 10, 2020

Trimble: Solidly Positive Strategic Move in Transportation with Kuebix Acquisition

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By: Rob Wertheimer The big picture upside for Trimble is that it has leading positions in two separate trillion-dollar markets that are highly underpenetrated in software and digital: construction and…

Research Report
January 7, 2020

Airbus: A321 Struggles Remain Central Watch Item

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By: Carter Copeland  Airbus is widely expected to report that the company achieved full year delivery guidance when final numbers are soon released. However, an extremely back-end loaded year was pressured…

Research Report
January 6, 2020

Industrials 2020+: All About Relevance, ESG, and Geopolitical Realities

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By: Scott Davis The world has changed, we all know that, but even obvious change has a way of sneaking up on you. The current bull market, for example,has created…

Research Report
January 6, 2020

Still Life in Cyclicals After the Rally

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By: Rob Wertheimer  Machinery stocks rallied hard at the end of 2019, reversing two years of poor performance. Despite that, and despite estimate cuts coming through, the group’s valuation remains…

Research Report
November 18, 2019

Melius Research Automation 101 & Rockwell Automation (ROK) Chartbook

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By: Scott Davis  ROK is a prime beneficiary of secular tailwinds around automation, including labor challenges, rising protectionism driving more localized supply chains, and falling costs of technology Only remaining…

Research Report
July 29, 2019

What Can Arrest the Slide? Probably Not Canada Edibles or Beverage Launches

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By: Rob Wertheimer  Cannabis stocks have corrected 30-40% since May, and in some cases more. We’ve spent some time since launching coverage looking for grounding in valuation, looking at assets/replacement…

Research Report
July 3, 2019

Canopy Chairman/Co-CEO Departure

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By: Rob Wertheimer  Canopy Growth announced the departure of Bruce Linton, co-CEO and Chairman of the board, this morning.  Bruce commented on CNBC that he had been terminated. The news…

Research Report
June 20, 2019

Industrials 2020+: All About Relevance, ESG, and Geopolitical Realities

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The world has changed, we all know that, but even obvious change has a way of sneaking up on you. The current bull market, for example,has created stark imbalances and…

Research Report
March 4, 2019

Cannabis Launch: So High Already

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By: Rob Wertheimer  We are launching coverage of the cannabis space, highlighting its growth, potential to become a major category in consumer/specialty pharma, and potential to disrupt growth curves in…

Research Report
January 24, 2019

GWW: Turnarounds are Rarely Linear

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By: Jake Levinson  GWW was one of the biggest industrial turnaround stories last year, with the stock outperforming the sector by 35% in what was an overall terrible year. Expectations have certainly…